Honigman Capitol Report: Post-Election Issue

Michigan Election Results 2024

President/Vice President

Former President Donald Trump is projected to once again win the White House, his victory confirmed this morning after he captured the battleground state of Wisconsin putting him above the 270 electoral votes threshold. It will still be days before the final votes are counted, but Trump appears on track to not only win the Electoral College, but also the popular vote. Michigan’s 15 electoral votes were too close to call as of this morning, but Trump is currently in the lead with over 98% reporting.

U.S. Senate

The Michigan Senate race is still too close to call as well. Democrat Elissa Slotkin is currently in the lead over Republican Mike Rogers by a fraction of a percentage point. However, the bulk of the remaining votes to be counted are out of Wayne County which leans Democratic. If Slotkin succeeds, she will be Michigan’s second-ever female senator and maintain a seat that Republicans have not been able to flip in over 20 years.

U.S. House

Across the state, Michigan’s U.S. House Districts went to incumbents with every current officeholder winning reelection. The two vacancies were split with Democratic Senator Kristen McDonald-Rivet and Republican former Senator Tom Barrett winning the key seats. In the 7th District, Barrett defeated Democrat Curtis Hertel Jr., despite the millions of dollars put in by Democrats. McDonald-Rivet defeated Republican Paul Junge in the 8th District, securing victory in a district that has faced political shifts in recent years.

State Legislature

Riding the political waves back to power, House Republicans have toppled one leg of the Democratic triumvirate in Michigan. Despite navigating the familiar minority party fundraising disadvantages, national political winds seemed to be at their back as voters have been pessimistic of the direction of Democrat leadership in the White House. With significant focus on competitive races in Macomb County and Downriver communities, the House Republicans were hopeful their appeal to moderate voters on the economy would help them over the top. Republican Representative-Elects unseated four House Democrats while Democrats failed to flip any Republican seats:

• Steve Frisbie (44th District, Calhoun),
• Ron Robinson (58th District, Macomb),
• Rylee Linting (27th District, Downriver), and
• Karl Bohnak (109th District, Upper Peninsula).

Looking Ahead

Reversing their two-seat deficit, House Republicans will return to Lansing in January with a 58-52 advantage. Without question, the new power dynamic will complicate Governor Whitmer’s agenda over her last two years in office. All budget and policy items will now require a greater element of compromise and collaboration in order to receive support in the House.

As with all elections, the immediate order of business will involve each parties’ representatives selecting their preferred leadership team in advance of next year’s new legislative session. Caucus leadership votes are done behind closed doors and the precise form of alliances can be somewhat murky until the votes are cast. Typically, both the House Speaker and Minority Leader selections are greatly influenced by the most recent election results. Those at the helm in good times tend to be rewarded, while those who’s caucus is seen as underperforming are often subject to a change in loyalties.

Regardless of caucus leadership votes, there is still the business of closing out the current 2023-2024 legislative session. Affectionately known as “lame duck” session, the period between the election and adjournment can range from quiet to tumultuous. The short window of action, broken up by a two week recess from mid to late November, often involves late night sessions that drag into the next morning and a long list of priorities hoping to see a vote before time runs out. This can prompt surprise deals between members and the administration to trade support on seemingly unrelated policy priorities, linked only by the need to garner action in short order. We anticipate this year’s lame duck to be approached with some ambition, however, it will be interesting to see how much majority Democrats will be able to accomplish. Working across the aisle may become rather difficult with Republicans keenly aware they will soon take power in the House when the next session begins in January 2025.